A year ago, the tariff story for freight brokers was simple to state and hard to live with: a 25% tariff on most goods from Mexico, announced, delayed, re-imposed, renegotiated, and litigated, with USMCA-qualifying goods carved out. We wrote about it then — that the 25% Mexico tariff was a market filter, not a freight kill switch. That read held up. Freight kept moving. The brokers who understood USMCA rules of origin gained ground on the ones who treated cross-border as a commodity lane.
Then the legal foundation collapsed. On February 20, 2026, in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, the Supreme Court held 6-3 — in an opinion by Chief Justice Roberts — that IEEPA, the 1977 emergency-powers statute the administration had used to impose its country-wide tariffs, does not grant the president authority to levy tariffs at all. The IEEPA tariffs terminated at 12:00 a.m. Eastern on February 24, 2026.
If you only read that headline, you'd think cross-border freight just got 25% cheaper overnight. It didn't. Here's the right read.
The Replacement Was Same-Day: Section 122
Within hours of the ruling, the administration issued a new executive order imposing a 10% tariff on goods from every country — this time under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, the "balance-of-payments" authority. It took effect February 24, 2026, the same moment the IEEPA tariffs died.
The crucial difference is the clock. Section 122 is a stopgap by design. It lets a president impose tariffs of up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days to address a balance-of-payments emergency, and then it expires unless Congress acts to extend it. The current 10% Section 122 tariff is set to terminate at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on July 24, 2026.
For a freight broker, that date is not trivia. It means the baseline tariff environment has a built-in cliff in late July — right on the heels of the USMCA joint-review deadline of July 1. The summer of 2026 is going to be the most consequential stretch of trade-policy decision-making since USMCA replaced NAFTA, and your shippers are going to be making 2027 sourcing and routing decisions in the middle of it.
What Survived the Ruling — and It's a Lot
The IEEPA ruling was narrow in a way that matters operationally. It knocked out one legal authority. It left every other tariff authority standing. Three things that did not go away:
Section 232 tariffs on metals and autos. Steel, aluminum, copper, and automobiles and auto parts remain subject to Section 232 tariffs of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. These rest on a different statute — one that requires a Commerce Department investigation and has a long, well-established legal history — so they were never in the Court's crosshairs. If anything, they got heavier: on April 2, 2026, a White House proclamation raised the tariff rates and expanded the duty base on steel, aluminum, and copper, effective April 6, 2026, and tightened enforcement on metal-containing derivative products. The administration is also studying Section 232 actions on critical minerals, commercial aircraft, jet engines, lumber and timber, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and trucks.
Section 301 tariffs on China. The China tariffs imposed under Section 301 are also untouched. That authority runs through the U.S. Trade Representative and a formal investigative process, and it's the most litigation-resistant tariff tool in the box.
The end of de minimis. The duty-free treatment of sub-$800 shipments ended for all countries on August 29, 2025, and the Court's IEEPA ruling did nothing to bring it back. We cover what the end of de minimis means for freight separately, but the short version is that the parcel-and-e-commerce import channel that used to bypass formal customs entirely is gone, and it's not coming back via this ruling.
So when a shipper's logistics manager says "I heard the Supreme Court killed the tariffs," the broker who can say "the IEEPA ones, yes — but your steel coil is still carrying a Section 232 rate, your China-sourced components are still on Section 301, and there's a 10% Section 122 floor on everything non-USMCA until at least late July" is the broker who sounds like they belong in the room.
USMCA-Qualifying Freight Is Still the Safe Harbor
Here's the throughline from 2025 to 2026: the carve-out survived the reset. The Section 122 tariff is structured like the IEEPA tariff it replaced, including the exception for goods that qualify for preferential treatment under USMCA. USMCA-qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico are excluded from the new 10% tariff.
That means the single most valuable thing a cross-border broker can help a shipper understand is unchanged: does your freight qualify under USMCA, and can you prove it? Roughly half of all imports from Mexico move tariff-free under USMCA. The automotive corridor through Monterrey, Saltillo, and San Luis Potosí; the electronics manufacturing in Tijuana and Juárez; the medical-device and aerospace clusters — these are running USMCA-qualifying freight, and the policy noise of 2026 doesn't change their duty treatment as long as the certification holds.
The broker's edge is the same edge it was a year ago, just sharper: rules-of-origin literacy, HS-code accuracy, and a relationship with a licensed customs broker (and the agente aduanal on the Mexico side who processes the pedimento) who can catch a misclassification before it reaches the border. The difference in 2026 is that the rules moved again, and the gap between brokers who track this and brokers who don't is now wide enough for shippers to feel it.
The Refund Wrinkle You Should Know About
Because the IEEPA tariffs were ruled unlawful, importers who paid them have a path to refunds. The mechanics are still being worked out by CBP and trade counsel, and the eligibility and process are evolving — but it's a live issue. You are not a customs broker and you should not be giving refund advice. What you can do is be the person who flags it: "If you paid IEEPA duties on non-USMCA freight in 2025, you may want to talk to your customs broker about whether a refund claim applies to you." That single sentence positions you as a partner who watches the whole board, not just the truck.
What This Means for the Lane
Strip away the legal vocabulary and the operational picture for the second half of 2026 is this:
- There is a 10% baseline tariff on non-USMCA goods from everywhere, in effect until at least July 24, 2026, with genuine uncertainty about what replaces it.
- USMCA-qualifying cross-border freight is exempt from that baseline — making correct origin certification more financially decisive than ever.
- Section 232 metals and auto tariffs are higher than they were and expanding into new product categories.
- The USMCA joint review lands July 1, and the Section 122 cliff lands July 24, stacking two major decision points into one summer.
None of this stops freight. It restructures it around documentation accuracy, origin engineering, and the brokers who can explain a moving target. As we said about nearshoring, the decade-long shift of manufacturing toward Mexico is a capital-allocation decision measured in 10-to-30-year horizons; it does not reverse on a tariff cycle or a single Supreme Court term. The structural growth in cross-border freight continues underneath all of this noise.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the Supreme Court ruling eliminate tariffs on Mexico and Canada?
No. The Court struck down only the tariffs imposed under IEEPA, including the 25% tariff on non-USMCA goods. The administration replaced them the same day with a 10% tariff under Section 122, which keeps the USMCA exemption in place. Separately, Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, and autos and Section 301 tariffs on China remain fully in effect.
What is the Section 122 tariff and when does it expire?
Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 lets a president impose a tariff of up to 15% for up to 150 days to address a balance-of-payments emergency. The 10% tariff imposed in February 2026 is scheduled to expire at 12:01 a.m. EDT on July 24, 2026, unless Congress acts to extend it. After that, the baseline tariff environment is genuinely uncertain.
Are USMCA-qualifying goods still exempt from the 2026 tariffs?
Yes. The Section 122 tariff retains the exception for goods that qualify for preferential treatment under USMCA, just as the IEEPA tariffs did. Goods meeting USMCA rules of origin continue to enter duty-free, which is why accurate origin certification is the most valuable thing a cross-border broker can help a shipper get right.
Can importers get refunds on the IEEPA tariffs they paid?
Potentially. Because the IEEPA tariffs were ruled unlawful, importers who paid them may be able to claim refunds, though the process and eligibility are still being clarified by CBP and trade counsel. Brokers shouldn't give refund advice, but flagging the issue and pointing a shipper to their licensed customs broker is a high-value, low-risk move.
Should brokers expect tariffs to keep changing in 2026?
Yes — and that's the point. The legal landscape has already shifted multiple times in 18 months. With the Section 122 expiration on July 24 and the USMCA joint review on July 1, the second half of 2026 is set up for more change. Uncertainty is the steady state, and the brokers who can explain what's actually in effect this week are the ones shippers keep on the phone.